Business torrents

Looking for signs of economic recovery? Try counting the number of trucks on the road.

Trucks carry almost all of the manufactured and retail goods in the country — from refrigerators to lumber, detergents to toys. Many economists gauge how fast assembly lines are running, and how much consumers are buying, by the volume of goods hauled by trucks. But the most recent earnings reports show trucks are not carrying enough yet to indicate recovery is near.

Slow consumer spending and stalled manufacturing activity took its toll on truckers in the first three months of the year. Nearly all major trucking companies reported lower first-quarter revenue and falling profits as shipping demand slid. Many cut back their fleets.

In the first quarter of 2009, about 480 trucking companies went under. That’s less than 1 percent of the nation’s total freight capacity, which still leaves too many trucks competing for fewer shipments, according to analyst Donald Broughton of investment bank Avondale Partners. More than 3,000 trucking companies went out of business last year — taking seven of every 100 trucks off the road.
Analysts think the number of trucks on U.S. highways will continue to slide until supply is more aligned with demand. When business starts to pick up again, they say, other economic factors — from the employment rate to the gross domestic product — will eventually follow.

Tavio Headley, an economist with the American Trucking Association, believes business will pick up as early as next quarter.

Some data may indicate the nation’s economic tailspin is beginning to level off. The Institute for Supply Management said this month that manufacturing activity contracted at a slower-than-expected pace in April, as orders to factories rose instant personal loans guaranteed.

The government also said the gross domestic product contracted at an annual rate of 6.1 percent during the first three months of the year. But the numbers also showed a rise in consumer spending and a decline in inventories, which suggests manufacturers and retailers may have to increase orders soon.

But "soon" doesn’t seem soon enough for the trucking industry. The ATA’s Headley said that although inventories are falling, sales are dropping at an even steeper rate, which is wiping out any benefit for the industry.

Trucking companies usually see shipments increase in number and weight three months to a year before the broader economy picks up, as retailers restock and manufacturers ramp up.

In the recession in 2001, freight shipments improved a full year before the broader economy.

But there is no sign of that yet in the current recession. The ATA said shipments fell 4.5 percent in March, erasing gains that made the industry cautiously optimistic in the two previous months.

Lower fuel prices aren’t necessarily helping the industry either. Less costly fuel has made it easier for struggling companies to stay afloat — good for them, but bad for the industry overall because competition remains fierce. So truckers must cut their prices to hold on to business.

"It doesn’t matter what fuel costs are if you’re not moving your truck to fill it with something," said Chuck Clowdis, an analyst with IHS Global Insight.

Source