Business torrents

Chief executive officers in the U.S. are more confident that the world’s largest economy is on the road to recovery as the job market stabilizes and business investment increases, a private survey found.

The Business Council’s confidence gauge climbed to 64.7 this month, the highest level in at least four years and up from 63.2 in an October survey, a report from the Washington-based group today showed. Readings greater than 50 signal economic growth.

Almost 70 percent of the executives surveyed said employment at their companies is likely to remain stable this year, indicating the economy will be slow to recover the 8.4 million jobs lost since the recession began. Some respondents said they were skeptical the Obama administration’s stimulus program enacted last February would boost growth or employment.

“These are encouraging signs, even if not all of us believe that the recovery is, as yet, underway,” JPMorgan Chase & Co. Chief Executive Officer Jamie Dimon said in a statement for the group. “Business looks to be getting back into business — though there remains much to be cautious about.”

The rate of economic growth in the U.S. this year will be 2.1 percent to 3 percent, according to 51 percent of those polled. Another 41 percent projected the economy will expand as much as 2 percent. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg News this month anticipate 3 percent growth this year, according to the median forecast.

Unemployment in 2010

By the end of the year, unemployment will be within a range of 9.6 percent to 10 percent, according to 61 percent of the company chiefs payday advance. The jobless rate unexpectedly fell to 9.7 percent in January from 10 percent the previous month, the Labor Department said Feb. 5.

About 30 percent of respondents said they expect President Barack Obama’s $787 billion stimulus package to “have little or no impact on the economy in 2010,” with more than half saying it will have a similar effect on job creation, according to the report.

Payrolls will grow by an average 95,000 jobs a month this year, the White House’s Council of Economic Advisers said today in an annual report to the president. The figures show administration economists predicting a monthly gain of 190,000 jobs on average next year and 251,000 in 2012.

The CEA’s report kept a forecast from Feb. 1 for the unemployment rate to average 10 percent this year and gross domestic product to expand 3 percent when measured fourth quarter to fourth quarter.

More Investment

The share of company chiefs that said they will invest more on new plants and equipment doubled to almost 50 percent, according to today’s Business Council survey. Fifty-seven percent of executives polled said they have seen an improvement in their industries in the past six months, and about 61 percent expect the gains to continue during the next six.

Other reports have shown consumer sentiment is also improving. Confidence among U.S. consumers rose in January to the highest level since September 2008, according to the Conference Board’s confidence index.

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