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Durables orders up, job market still healing

January 26, 2012

New orders for manufactured goods rose in December and a gauge of future business investment rebounded, while new claims for jobless benefits rose only moderately last week, suggesting the labor market was still healing.

Durable goods orders climbed 3.0 percent, the Commerce Department said on Thursday. Economists had forecast orders rising 2.0 percent.

Durable goods range from toasters to big-ticket items like aircraft which are meant to last three years and more.

Orders last month were buoyed by 5.5 percent increase in bookings for transportation equipment as orders for civilian aircraft surged 18.9 percent. Boeing received 287 orders for aircraft during the month, according to the plane maker’s website, up from 96 in November.

Non-defense capital goods orders excluding aircraft, a closely watched proxy for business spending plans, advanced 2.9 percent.

Business spending, which has helped the economy to recover from the 2007-09 recession, had been showing signs of cooling but December’s rebound in new orders suggested corporations might be growing more willing to invest.

“What it does tell you about going into the new year is that there’s some momentum here,” said Jacob Oubina, an economist at RBC Capital Markets in New York.

Also, shipments of non-defense capital goods orders excluding aircraft, which go into the calculation of gross domestic product, rose 2.9 percent after declining 1.0 percent in November.

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Graphic on jobless claims:

link.reuters.com/xah36s

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Investors in U.S. stock futures appeared to take little notice of the data, with prices slightly higher. U.S. Treasury debt prices pared gains modestly no teletrack payday loans.

Increased consumer spending and efforts by companies to restock their shelves likely led the U.S. economy to accelerate at the end of 2011 although many economists expect some of that strength to wane early this year.

A report due Friday is expected to show the economy grew at a 3.0 percent annual rate in the fourth quarter, up from 1.8 percent in the previous period.

The proxy for business spending plans had dropped 1.2 percent in November and 0.9 percent in October. Economists’ had expected a 1.0 percent gain last month.

Orders for motor vehicles edged up 0.6 percent. Excluding transportation, orders rose 2.1 percent.

In a separate report, Labor Department data showed new U.S. claims for unemployment benefits rising last week but the underlying trend continued to point to improving labor market conditions.

Initial claims for state unemployment benefits increased 21,000 to a seasonally adjusted 377,000, the Labor Department said. The prior week’s figure was revised up to 356,000 from the previously reported 352,000.

On Wednesday, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said the U.S. central bank could do more to help growth if the economy falters, after policymakers said interest rates would remain near zero until late 2014.

Among the darker clouds looming over the U.S. economy, Europe is still racing to contain a sovereign debt crisis that is widely seen triggering a recession in the euro zone.

Greece resumes tortuous negotiations on a debt swap with private creditors in Athens on Thursday, with the European Central Bank thrown into the mix after IMF chief Christine Lagarde said public sector holders of Greek debt may need to take losses too.

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Stifel to pay $1.1 million to settle alleged supervisory failure

January 24, 2012

Investment brokerage firm Stifel, Nicolaus & Co. will pay $1.1 million to settle Missouri regulator’s allegation that the firm failed to reasonably supervise a former employee who ran a pyramid scheme.

The former stockbroker, Kenneth Neely, worked for St. Louis-based Stifel in its St. Peters office from October 2002 until January 2007 and later worked at another broker-dealer, AXA Advisors in Clayton, from December 2007 to July 2009.

In November 2009, the Missouri Commissioner of Securities accused Neely of committing multiple violations of selling unregistered and nonexempt securities, transacting business as an unregistered agent and making untrue statements in connection with the sale or offer of securities in a St. Charles real estate investment trust and a fraudulent investment club.  

According to the state of Missouri, Neely told friends and church members that his investment club would pay up to 20 percent in interest a year, however he failed to tell the investors that the securities were unregistered. He did this when working at Stifel and later at Axxa, the state said.

Neely was convicted in February 2010 on mail fraud charges and sentenced to 37 months in prison. He is serving his sentence at a federal correctional facility in Indiana.

Today, the Missouri Secretary of State’s office announced Stifel’s settlement after a two-year-long investigation by the Enforcement Section of the Missouri Securities Division. The Stifel “failed to reasonably supervise an agent who operated a criminal investment scheme while at the firm” according to the state’s consent order.

“These events occurred more than five years ago. We welcome the opportunity to put this matter behind us,” the company said in a press release no fax payday loan. “All of the affected clients will receive restitution … We would note that Neely’s illegal activities occurred outside the scope of his employment with Stifel.”

While agreeing to the facts surrounding the case, Stifel neither admits nor denies the regulator’s allegations, the consent order said.

According to the state, Stifel failed to detect or investigate red flags during Neely’s employment, including a customer’s check sent to Neely’s home address and a customer’s concerns relating to Neely’s investment club. The state found that Stifel failed to reasonably supervise Neely, his private securities transactions and emails.

“Every firm has a duty to supervise and to take steps to detect fraudulent activity by its agent, and this action reinforces that investors should always exercise caution when looking at potential investments,” Missouri Secretary of State Robin Carnahan said in a statement.

Stifel will pay $531,385 in restitution and interest to 10 investors in Missouri, California, Florida and Maryland. Additionally, Stifel will pay $500,000 to the Missouri Investor Education and Protection Fund and $70,000 for the costs of the Securities Division’s investigation.

As part of the settlement, Stifel’s registration with the state is censured, and the firm is required to hire a consultant to study its supervisory and compliance activities. A report from the consultant is due in three months.

New York-based AXA, Neely’s other former employer, signed a similar consent order with the state in December 2010.

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Spanish Economy Shrank Most in Two Years Last Quarter, Central Bank Says - Bloomberg

January 23, 2012

Spain

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Mexico Central Bank Signals Concern on Growth Outlook at Rate Kept at 4.5% - Bloomberg

January 21, 2012

Mexico

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GM retakes title of top-selling global automaker

January 19, 2012

General Motors Co. has retaken the title of world’s top-selling automaker, selling just over 9 million cars and trucks across the globe.

The company said Thursday that it sold 9.03 million vehicles worldwide last year, up 7.6 percent from 2010. That’s more than 1 million better than Japan’s Toyota Motor Corp., which took the title away from GM in 2008.

GM also beat Germany’s fast-growing Volkswagen AG, which last week reported record global sales of 8.16 million in 2011, up 14 percent from the year before. Toyota said it sold 7.9 million vehicles worldwide last year.

GM had held the global sales crown for more than seven decades before losing it to Toyota as GM’s sales tanked while it headed toward financial ruin. In 2009, GM filed for bankruptcy protection, needing a U.S. government bailout to survive.

Now GM is profitable again and its vehicles are selling well across the globe. The company reported net income of $7.1 billion for the first three quarters of last year, and it is expected to add to that number when it reports fourth-quarter and full-year results in February.

Toyota is aiming for a comeback this year and has predicted that it will sell 8.48 million vehicles in 2012. Its sales were hurt last year because the March earthquake in Japan slowed its factories, and dealers ran short of cars to sell.

Auto industry analysts predict a tight race this year between GM, Volkswagen, Toyota and the joint venture between Nissan and Renault.

Some analysts have said that VW is the world’s biggest automaker because GM’s figures include vehicles made by its Wuling joint venture in China Same day payday loans. Many don’t count Wuling because GM doesn’t have controlling interest in the company, but GM includes it in global sales figures.

Excluding Wuling, GM would have been topped by Volkswagen.

Being the world’s top-selling automaker doesn’t mean much for the bottom line. But GM retaking the title is an example of how far the company has come since its 2009 bankruptcy.

GM CEO Dan Akerson said last week that the company isn’t that concerned about posting large sales numbers and is focused more on making money so it can reinvest in products and generate returns for shareholders. But he says strong sales can bring strong finances.

“You’re not going to achieve the financial goals we want to achieve and have declining market share or declining numbers of units sold,” he said. “So it’s one indicator among many.”

GM said its sales were up in all four of its regions: North America, Europe, South America and International Operations, which includes Asia. The Chevrolet brand led the way, selling a record 4.76 million vehicles across the world.

GM sold 640,000 more cars and trucks last year than it did in 2010, when it sold 8.39 million.

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China Said to Warn Banks as Local Officials Seek New Loans - Bloomberg

January 18, 2012

China warned its banks to resist demand for credit from local governments as new officials in cities, towns and villages pursue projects that bolster growth, a person with knowledge of the matter said.

The China Banking Regulatory Commission (CBRZ) told lenders earlier this month to be on watch for loan applications for new programs disguised as funding requests for unfinished ones, said the person, declining to be identified as the order isn

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PM warns violence could destabilize Romania

January 16, 2012

More than 1,000 demonstrators jeered government austerity measures in downtown Bucharest on Monday as Romania’s prime minister warned that violent clashes like those that left 59 injured over the weekend could jeopardize stability and economic growth.

Protesters who gathered in freezing temperatures for a fifth day of demonstrations chanted “Freedom!” and held banners saying “Hunger and poverty have gripped Romania!” They waved flags with the center ripped out, a symbol of the 1989 uprising against former Communist dictator Nicolae Ceausescu.

There were smaller protests in another dozen Romanians cities, but it was not clear how many people had gathered around the country.

On Sunday, police clashed with a small contingent of around 1,000 protesters in the capital. Tear gas and flares were used to repel demonstrators hurling stones and firebombs.

Interior minister Traian Igas said Monday that around 8,700 people attended weekend demonstrations, but only in Bucharest did the protests turn violent, when _ according to interior ministry officials _ fans of football clubs infiltrated the demonstrations and wreaked havoc in the city.

Bucharest mayor Sorin Oprescu said the windows of shops, banks and bus stations were smashed, and street lights vandalized.

Prime Minister Emil Boc on Monday called the violence “unacceptable,” and said it “cannot be tolerated.” He promised, however, that a controversial health law allowing for some privatization of emergency services will be redrafted.

Boc urged Romanians to understand that tough austerity measures were needed to avoid a default. “We understand the hardships Romanians are facing … The crisis has been harsher than we imagined,” he said.

But, protesters out on Monday were not convinced that the austerity measures were necessary.

“We are staying here even though it is freezing cold,” said one protester who identified himself only as Radu, wrapped in a thick coat, scarf and hat as snow fell. “We have a real backbone not like the government which turned its back on us.”

In 2009, Romania took a two-year euro20 billion ($27.5 billion) loan from the International Monetary Fund, the European Union and the World Bank as its economy shrank by 7.1 percent. It imposed harsh austerity measures under the agreement, reducing public wages by 25 percent and increasing taxes.

Anger has mounted over the wage cuts, slashed benefits, higher taxes and widespread corruption.

Alis Grasu of Bucharest’s ambulance services said 59 people suffered injuries during the disturbances, 23 were briefly hospitalized and three are still in the hospital.

Police official Aurel Moise said about 250 people were fined for their conduct and 36 will be investigated.

Authorities urged peaceful protesters to distance themselves from troublemakers at future marches.

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Noda Says Japan Must Heed Lessons of Europe - Bloomberg

Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda said containing Japan

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After nationalizing housing finance, Uncle Sam faces tough choices

January 13, 2012

Now that we’ve essentially socialized the mortgage business, the federal government finds itself with two incompatible objectives.

It wants to help people stay in their homes, but it also wants to minimize the losses it takes on Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the two mortgage giants that landed in the Treasury’s lap during the financial crisis.

Now the Federal Reserve, concerned that a moribund housing market is slowing the nation’s economic recovery, wants bureaucrats to focus more on the former and less on the latter. In other words, the Fed thinks the Treasury should be willing to lose more money in order to prop up housing prices.

The Fed, in a white paper sent to Congress last week, lists several measures that Fannie and Freddie could take to bolster the housing market. It suggests, for example, that the government-run companies limit a practice called forced repurchase, in which Fannie and Freddie force lenders to take back bad loans.

This policy reduces the losses to Fannie and Freddie — and eventually the Treasury — but the Fed says it discourages lenders from making new loans to anyone with less-than-perfect credit. That locks a lot of people out of the housing market, even though record-low interest rates have made mortgages more affordable than ever.

The Fed also would like Fannie and Freddie to turn more of their foreclosed houses into rental properties. This might involve starting a new loan program for landlords, or it might involve lenders themselves becoming landlords.

The white paper even estimates that, for two-fifths of the houses that Fannie and Freddie own, renting would net the government more money than selling.

Overall, though, the Fed acknowledges that its ideas are no free lunch. After it suggests expanding the Home Affordable Modification Program to keep more people out of foreclosure, the paper contains this chilling sentence:

“Moving further in this direction is thus likely to involve additional taxpayer funding, the overriding of private contract rights, or both, which raises difficult public policy issues and tradeoffs high quality business cards.”

Ed Pinto, a former Fannie Mae executive who’s now a resident fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, thinks the Fed’s ideas are dangerous. He argues that they wouldn’t help the housing market overall, and might actually delay the recovery even further.

“The way I look at it, housing has been terribly politicized for the last 20 to 25 years, and is now nationalized,” Pinto says. “You could do more, but I think the Fed has it exactly backward. Jobs create demand for housing, not the other way around.”

The goal, he adds, should be to reduce the government’s role in the housing market, not increase it. Housing prices have to hit bottom before they can start to recover, and more intervention merely delays the bottoming-out process.

“The way these markets work is that everything overcorrects,” Pinto said. “If the government would let the market clear, the overcorrection would stop.”

Pinto doesn’t advocate a completely hands-off approach. He thinks Fannie and Freddie could ease restrictions on their small-investor program, which currently limits landlords to eight rental properties, as a way of getting renters into some foreclosed houses. He also likes the idea of modifying some underwater mortgages to help homeowners pay them down faster.

But when the Fed talks about turning the government into a large-scale landlord, or deliberately increasing the Treasury’s losses on mortgages, Pinto starts to worry. That’s a formula for an even longer housing slump, he says, and certainly not a recipe for recovery.

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Retail Sales in U.S. Probably Increased on Holiday Discounts - Bloomberg

January 12, 2012

Sales (RSTAMOM) at U.S. retailers probably rose in December as Americans bought discounted holiday items, giving the economy a boost entering 2012, economists said before a report today.

The projected 0.3 percent gain would follow a 0.2 percent advance in November, according to the median forecast of 75 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. First-time jobless claims were little changed last week, another report may show.

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